Strong piece on the decision journaling framework. The falsifiable metrics approach is critical but most investors skip it becuase it forces uncomfortable accountability. What I've found is that defining those threshold levels upfront creates discipline but the harder part is actually executing the sell when thresholds break. Ego protection kicks in and suddenly the metrics seem less relevant. The Alibaba example is textbook metacognition done right.
Wholeheartedly agree on the ego protection point. If your thesis is constantly “moving the goalpost” then it’s more likely an unwillingness to admit you were incorrect in your prior judgement.
Another rule we’ve found helpful: if the reason we’re still holding changes, the position needs to be re-underwritten from scratch (i.e different valuation inputs) Otherwise, it’s too easy to rationalize staying put.
Strong piece on the decision journaling framework. The falsifiable metrics approach is critical but most investors skip it becuase it forces uncomfortable accountability. What I've found is that defining those threshold levels upfront creates discipline but the harder part is actually executing the sell when thresholds break. Ego protection kicks in and suddenly the metrics seem less relevant. The Alibaba example is textbook metacognition done right.
Wholeheartedly agree on the ego protection point. If your thesis is constantly “moving the goalpost” then it’s more likely an unwillingness to admit you were incorrect in your prior judgement.
Another rule we’ve found helpful: if the reason we’re still holding changes, the position needs to be re-underwritten from scratch (i.e different valuation inputs) Otherwise, it’s too easy to rationalize staying put.
Thanks for the comment! 🙏